Big balance

atm rcpt
So I was at the QFC in Ballard this afternoon, and I stopped at the cash machine. While I was waiting for things to authorize, I noticed a receipt sitting on top of the machine. Needless to say I was amazed at the savings account balance of nearly $300,000!! Why would anyone keep that much in their savings account? Also notice the person withdrew only $20. I guess they didn't want a wad of cash burning a hole in
their pocket. Geesh.

I'm always a little surprised that people leave their ATM receipts laying around, but when you've got a $300,000 account balance I'd think you'd want to be just a bit more careful.

The New Great Game: Oil Politics in Central Asia

It's always about oil, isn't it? In this editorial piece from yahoo, Ted Rall points out that the Kazakhstan has an estimated 50 billion barrels of oil (compared to Saudi Arabia's remaining 30 billion), and is desperate to find a way to get the oil out of the country to paying customers. Lacking a port, they'll have to build a pipeline, and one of the most attractive options is to pipe through Afghanistan.

Time to put on your paranoid/conspiracy hat…


The New Great Game: Oil Politics in Central Asia
By Ted Rall
NEW YORK
Monday October 22 05:18 PM EDT

Nursultan Nazarbayev has a terrible problem. He's the president and former Communist Party boss of Kazakhstan, the second-largest republic of the former Soviet Union. A few years ago, the giant country struck oil in the eastern portion of the Caspian Sea. Geologists estimate that sitting beneath the wind-blown steppes of Kazakhstan are 50 billion barrels of oil-by far the biggest untapped reserves in the world. (Saudi Arabia, currently the world's largest oil producer, is believed to have about 30 billion barrels remaining.) Kazakhstan's Soviet-subsidized economy collapsed immediately after independence in 1991. When I visited the then-capital, Almaty, in 1997, I was struck by the utter absence of elderly people. One after another, people confided that their parents had died of malnutrition during the brutal winters of 1993 and 1994. Middle-class residents of a superpower had been reduced to abject poverty virtually overnight; thirtysomething women who appeared sixtysomething hocked their wedding silver in underpasses, next to reps for the Kazakh state art museum trying to move enough socialist realist paintings for a dollar each to keep the lights on. The average Kazakh earned $20 a month; those unwilling or unable to steal died of gangrene while sitting on the sidewalk next to long-winded tales of woe written on cardboard. Read More …

Janus words

Marilyn Vos Savant's 7 October 2001 presents some "Janus words" (words that have two meanings that are opposite) from Richard Lederer's book, Crazy English:

buckle: fasten together, and fall apart (buckle a seat belt, buckle under pressure

clip: separate, and fasten (clip the coupon from the newspaper, clip the coupon to the grocery list)

oversight: supervision, and neglect (he was responsible for oversight of the project, his oversight ruined the project)

qualified: competent, and limited (a qualified candidate, a qualified success)

sanction: approve, and disapprove (sanction the event, impose a sanction on a country)

temper: soften, and strengthen (anger is tempered with reason, steel is tempered by various means)

Shortening the bungee cord

Nothing against Microsoft, but I loved the metaphor in this quote from the ZDNet article, "Microsoft confronts security fears", regarding changes in Microsoft's security plans:

[Gartner analyst John Pescatore] likened Microsoft's [past security] approach to running a bungee-jumping concession. "You probably ought to make the rubber band a little short," he said. "What Microsoft has always done in the past is give a really big rubber band and say, 'Oops, we heard a splat. Here's how you can shorten the rubber band.'"

Closing the door behind you

I loved these quotes from Robert Cringely's 27 September 2001 column on pbs.org:

Though many of his [J.P. Morgan's] tactics [in the early 1900's] would be illegal today, they weren't at the time he used them, and they built much of the world that we know today. Americans do things like that. They build slap-dash empires, then consolidate them by outlawing both the slap and the dash, closing the door behind them.

[Technological] revolutions are rarely fair, often unpredictable, but usually irresistible. The rise of electric money is no exception.

You can have security without giving up liberty

From the 30 Sept 2001 issue of Crypto-Gram:


Security and privacy [and liberty] are not two sides of a teeter-totter. This association is simplistic and largely fallacious. It's easy and fast, but less effective, to increase security by taking away liberty. However, the best ways to increase security are not at the expense of privacy and liberty.

It's easy to refute the notion that all security comes at the expense of liberty. Arming pilots, reinforcing cockpit doors, and teaching flight attendants karate are all examples of security measures that have no effect on individual privacy or liberties. So are better authentication of airport maintenance workers, or dead-man switches that force planes to automatically land at the closest airport, or armed air marshals traveling on flights.

Liberty-depriving security measures are most often found when system designers failed to take security into account from the beginning. They're Band-aids, and evidence of bad security planning. When security is designed into a system, it can work without forcing people to give up their freedoms.

Here's an example: securing a room. Option one: convert the room into an impregnable vault. Option two: put locks on the door, bars on the windows, and alarm everything. Option three: don't bother securing the room; instead, post a guard in the room who records the ID of everyone entering and makes sure they should be allowed in.

Option one is the best, but is unrealistic. Impregnable vaults just don't exist, getting close is prohibitively expensive, and turning a room into a vault greatly lessens its usefulness as a room. Option two is the realistic best; combine the strengths of prevention, detection, and response to achieve resilient security. Option three is the worst. It's far more expensive than option two, and the most invasive and easiest to defeat of all three options. It's also a sure sign of bad planning; designers built the room, and only then realized that they needed security. Rather then spend the effort installing door locks and alarms, they took the easy way out and invaded people's privacy.

Airport biometrics to find terrorists

An article on the use of biometrics to identify terrorists in airports. The key point in the article:

Suppose this "magically-effective" face-recognition software is 99.99 percent accurate. That is, if someone is a terrorist, there is a 99.99 percent chance that the software would indicate "terrorist," and if someone was not a terrorist, there is a 99.99 percent chance that the software would indicate "non-terrorist." Assume that one in one billion flyers, on average, is a terrorist. Is the software any good?

No. The software will generate 9,999 false alarms for every one real terrorist. And every false alarm still means that all the security people go through all of their security procedures. Because the population of non-terrorists is so much larger than the number of terrorists, the test is useless. This result is counterintuitive and surprising, but it is correct. The false alarms in this kind of system render it mostly useless. It's "The Boy Who Cried Wolf" increased over 1000-fold.

Of course, that's assuming that you can get a system that is 99.99% accurate.

If you're wondering, here's the math behind Bruce's numbers:

Start with the statement that terrorist are 1 in 1,000,000,000 of the travelers passing through airports.

Lets look at the 1 terrorist out of those billion. At a 99.99% rate, you easily pick up the terrorist.

But then consider the other 999,999,999 travelers who aren't terrorists. If the system is 99.99% accurate, then the flip side is that 0.01% of the time it will incorrectly label one of these travelers as a terrorist when they are not in fact a terrorist.

So 999,999,999 times 0.01% equals 9,999 innocent travelers picked out of the crowd as terrorists. Of course after 10 or 15 minutes of confusion, the traveler will (probably) be able to prove their innocence. So that's 2,500 hours of time (312 eight hour shifts) to pick out the terrorist.

Privacy vs. terrorism

Like most civilized citizens of the world, my condolences go out to those more personally affected by the attacks in New York and Washington DC.

We now begin a tricky dance deciding the actions we will take to thwart terrorist plans before they come to fruition. Many have thoughtfully pointed out the mistakes we made during WWII when we crossed the line, particularly the internment of innocent US citizens whose grandparents happened to have come from Japan. We don't want to make similar mistakes in our treatment of US citizens who happen to be Muslims, or come from a Middle Eastern heritage.

One of the more subtle points is the things we might give up to combat terrorism, particularly personal privacy on the Internet. People will naturally look for easy answers to the problems posed by these recent terrorist attacks, and many will blame the Internet. This is a new technology and people tend to be scared of new technology. But complete surrender of our rights to surveillance technologies is not the solution to terrorism.

I particularly liked this post in an online forum:

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An Engineer's View of Venture Capitalists

Link to original.


An Engineer's View of Venture Capitalists

By Nick Tredennick, with Brion Shimamoto, Dynamic Silicon

I first encountered venture capitalists (VCs) in 1987. Despite a bad start, I caught the start-up bug. In the years since, I have worked with more than 30 start-ups as founder, advisor, engineer, executive, and board member. It's a lot more than that if you count all the times I've tried to help "nerd" friends (engineers) connect with the "rich guys" (VCs). Naturally, I've formed opinions along the way. Many books and articles eulogize VCs. But here I want to present an engineer's view of VCs. It may sound like I'm maligning VCs. That's not my intent. And I'm not trying to change human nature. VCs know how to deal with engineers, but engineers don't know how to deal with VCs. VCs take advantage of this situation to maximize the return for the venture fund's investors. Engineers are getting short-changed.

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